©2026 This excerpt taken from the article of the same name which appeared in ASHRAE Journal, vol. 68, No. 2, February 2026.
A Residential Approach To Heat Pumps & Climate Goals
By David Pogosian
David Pogosian is the co-owner of NUR HVAC, in Belmont, Calif.
As energy prices rise and governments pursue decarbonization, heat pump systems emerge as a sustainable solution for residential buildings. Unlike centralized HVAC systems serving multiple units, heat pumps offer individual unit-level control. This provides flexibility, reduces single-point failure risks and can improve efficiency. In this column, heat pump systems for residential buildings are analyzed economically, using cost-benefit analysis, life-cycle performance and energy risk metrics. Rooted in empirical data and modeling, they are evaluated relative to traditional HVAC systems, mostly split systems that pair air conditioners (ACs) and gas furnaces. Key performance metrics are investigated, including seasonal coefficient of performance, maintenance costs and return on investment in the San Francisco Bay area.
Heat pumps offer many benefits, but in humid climates, oversized units may lead to poor dehumidification, discomfort and even health or durability issues. Therefore, their sizing must consider heating and cooling loads. In colder or humid regions, moderately sized heat pumps with supplemental heating (electric or gas) may be more appropriate.
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